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Estimation of efficiency of radio astronomical forecast on the flare activity
The authors estimated the efficiency of a prediction on flare activity
in active regions based on spectropolarization observations at RATAN-600
in the wide radio-wave range. The method is aimed at a short-term flare
forecast (1-3 days). Preparation of a reliable forecast is a complex
process due to multi-parametric description of plasma and many nonlinear
relationships between parameters. The authors used radio astronomical
forecast method for an active event by analyzing the intensity spectrum
and polarization of radiation in an active region. The calculated
efficiency of the forecast of proton flares is 94% with a 13.2% error,
the efficiency of the forecast of strong flares is 88% with a 12.8% error.
Authors:
Bogod V.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V. (SAO RAS),
Svidskii P.M. (IPG Goskomgidromet), Everstov N.P., (ITMO University)
Published:
Bogod V.M., Svidskii P.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V.,
Everstov N.P. On the method of solar activity forecasting based on radio
observations. Abstracts of the XX "Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics-2016"
conference, St. Petersburg, October 2016 (the paper is submitted to the
"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy" journal).
Reconstruction of the atmosphere of the Solar corona over a spot using recent data
We obtained first results of measurements of temperature above active
regions using the automatic iteration method of radio emission estimation
applied to the observed results from RATAN-600 in the range of 2-18 GHz
at several dozen wavelengths. The method was used for some active regions
and, as a result, we experimentally and efficiently measured the increasing
temperature in the Solar transition region and lower corona over single
spots. We have detected the increase in temperature in the transition
region and lower corona which generally conforms to the adopted Selhorst
model taking into account individual features of active regions.
The results are in good agreement with direct measurements of a magnetic
field at the base of the corona from radio observations and allow one
to refine a height estimate for these measurements.
Authors:
Kaltman T.I., Bogod V.M., (SAO RAS), Stupishin A.G., Yasnov L.V.
(Saint Petersburg State University)
Published:
Stupishin A., Bogod V., Kaltman T., Yasnov L., Modeling of solar
atmosphere parameters above the active region using RATAN-600
radiotelescope observation, Programme and abstracts of
CESRA 2016: Solar Radio Physics from the Chromosphere to Near Earth
June 13-17 June 2016, Orleans (France), electronic issue, p. 100
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