Estimation of efficiency of radio astronomical forecast on the flare activity
The authors estimated the efficiency of a prediction on flare activity in active regions based on spectropolarization observations at RATAN-600 in the wide radio-wave range. The method is aimed at a short-term flare forecast (1-3 days). Preparation of a reliable forecast is a complex process due to multi-parametric description of plasma and many nonlinear relationships between parameters. The authors used radio astronomical forecast method for an active event by analyzing the intensity spectrum and polarization of radiation in an active region. The calculated efficiency of the forecast of proton flares is 94% with a 13.2% error, the efficiency of the forecast of strong flares is 88% with a 12.8% error.
Authors: Bogod V.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V. (SAO RAS), Svidskii P.M. (IPG Goskomgidromet), Everstov N.P., (ITMO University)
Bogod V.M., Svidskii P.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V., Everstov N.P. On the method of solar activity forecasting based on radio observations. Abstracts of the XX "Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics-2016" conference, St. Petersburg, October 2016 (the paper is submitted to the "Geomagnetism and Aeronomy" journal).
Reconstruction of the atmosphere of the Solar corona over a spot using recent data
We obtained first results of measurements of temperature above active regions using the automatic iteration method of radio emission estimation applied to the observed results from RATAN-600 in the range of 2-18 GHz at several dozen wavelengths. The method was used for some active regions and, as a result, we experimentally and efficiently measured the increasing temperature in the Solar transition region and lower corona over single spots. We have detected the increase in temperature in the transition region and lower corona which generally conforms to the adopted Selhorst model taking into account individual features of active regions. The results are in good agreement with direct measurements of a magnetic field at the base of the corona from radio observations and allow one to refine a height estimate for these measurements.
Authors: Kaltman T.I., Bogod V.M., (SAO RAS), Stupishin A.G., Yasnov L.V. (Saint Petersburg State University)
Stupishin A., Bogod V., Kaltman T., Yasnov L., Modeling of solar atmosphere parameters above the active region using RATAN-600 radiotelescope observation, Programme and abstracts of CESRA 2016: Solar Radio Physics from the Chromosphere to Near Earth June 13-17 June 2016, Orleans (France), electronic issue, p. 100